In part three of our national debt masterclass, we share a simple debt dynamics formula we can monitor to help guide our investment choices.

Topics covered include:

• How much has the national debt grown over the past fifties years, and what are the underlying drivers
• How the budget deficit, interest rates, and economic growth determine the level and growth in the national debt
• Under what circumstances will the U.S. default on its debt
• How should we invest to protect ourselves from the uncertainties of the national debt situation

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Show Notes

Jerome Powell: Full 2024 60 Minutes interview transcript—CBS News

Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt by Ann Saphir and David Lawder—Reuters

IMF Steps Up Its Warning to US Over Spending and Ballooning Debt by Christopher Condon—Bloomberg

WHEN DOES FEDERAL DEBT REACH UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS?—Penn Wharton

The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054—Congressional Budget Office

PUBLIC DEBT AND LOW INTEREST RATES by Olivier J. Blanchard—NBER

Bond vigilantes snooze as Treasury market shrugs off vast US borrowing by Kate Duguid—The Financial Times

Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—FRED

Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 10 Years Hence—FRED

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