Episódios

  • How To Trade The Fed Cutting Cycle

    How To Trade The Fed Cutting Cycle
    Sep 20 2024
    Alf and Brent discuss the jumbo 50 bps Fed cut and the nuances Powell shared during the press conference. They look at historical parallels to derive how to best approach different asset classes with a specific focus on the USD. They also cover the Chinese economy which seems to be slowly imploding from within. We are now also on Youtube, where you can see supporting charts and our bald heads. https://youtu.be/o1iDoADS0c4 Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20sep2024/
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    36 minutos
  • The World is Different Now

    The World is Different Now
    Sep 13 2024
    Alf and Brent discuss similarities and differences between the world and the macro cycle today versus the pre-pandemic period. While the cycle might look similar, should we not pay attention to the structural differences too? The duo moves on to discuss the aggressive bond market pricing and how to trade around that. Finally, they focus on the US Dollar: will it perform nicely or poorly if we get a recession? Free trial to Alf's institutional macro research: https://forms.gle/yNU1vBqCqRXSvEHA7 Sign up to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-13-september-2024/
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    41 minutos
  • Will The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps?

    Will The Fed Cut by 25 or 50 bps?
    Sep 6 2024
    Alf and Brent discuss recent developments in macro and labor market data, and debate whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 bps in September. Is the bond market overestimating the amount of upcoming cuts, or economic weakness will require the Fed to cut rates even more aggressively? They then move to investigate how long-term investing bias can negatively affect short-term oriented trading decisions, and how to measure consensus. Free trial to Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/6bXTD5ApyrdvSv798 Subscribe to Brent's newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ Commodities are the worst-performing asset class over the past 20 years: https://www.mfs.com/content/dam/mfs-enterprise/mfscom/sales-tools/sales-ideas/mfsp_20yrsa_fly.pdf Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-6-september-2024/
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    37 minutos
  • How & When The Best Macro Investors Use Options

    How & When The Best Macro Investors Use Options
    Aug 23 2024
    In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how cross-asset pricing in bonds, FX and equity markets has rapidly changed in August and compare it with the hard economic reality: are there opportunities to be exploited? They then make a deep dive on the US Dollar, and finally cover a crucial trading framework topic: when and how to use options instead of linear structures to put up macro trades? FREE TRIAL to Alf's Institutional Macro Research: https://www.tinyurl.com/FreeTrialResearch Sign up to Brent's newsletter: www.spectramarkets.com/subscribe Brent's dedicated piece on options vs linear trades: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-23-august-2024/
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    40 minutos
  • A Tale of Crowded Macro Trades

    A Tale of Crowded Macro Trades
    Aug 10 2024
    Alf and Brent reflect on the immense volatility hitting markets recently, and specifically on the unwind of carry trades: are we done here or is there more to come? Most importantly, they describe how to design and apply a risk management and position sizing framework so that when everybody panics you don't need to. Want to reach out to Alf? Ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg Brent Donnelly can also be reached on Bloomberg, or via spectramarkets.com Transcript link here: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-12-august-2024/
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    36 minutos
  • Macro Mayhem!

    Macro Mayhem!
    Aug 2 2024
    Alf and Brent reflect on the massive bond market rally and the explosive move in the Japanese Yen - what’s next for macro? To contact Alf: send him an email at info@palinurocapital.com or contact him on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello) To contact Brent: ping him on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) or go on http://www.spectramarkets.com/ Brent’s piece on positioning: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-11-sentiment-and-positioning Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/the-macro-trading-floor-transcript-02-august-2024/
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    40 minutos
  • Explaining This Brutal Stocks Sell-Off

    Explaining This Brutal Stocks Sell-Off
    Jul 26 2024
    This week, Alf and Brent discuss the brutal equity market sell-off: is it due to macro tectonic shifts, a reassessment of political risks or an unwind of crowded trades? The duo digs deep trying to connect the dots, and they also discuss a trading framework around this large volatility events.
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    37 minutos
  • Where To Find Cheap Macro Optionality

    Where To Find Cheap Macro Optionality
    Jul 19 2024
    Alf and Brent look into various ''Trump trades'' now that the odds of a Trump election and Republican sweep have increased: is there still juice left? And where? Specifically, they also reflect on the use of options as macro traders. Want to see Alf's Cheap Optionality Monitor? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg And take advantage of Brent's course offer! Think Like a Market Professional: www.spectramarkets.com/school - use code JULY24 for $500 off Stuff mentioned during the podcast: GS piece on AI https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/gs-research/gen-ai-too-much-spend-too-little-benefit/report.pdf?ref=wheresyoured.at Ed Zitron pieces on AI https://www.wheresyoured.at/pop-culture/ https://www.wheresyoured.at/put-up-or-shut-up/ White House statement on Biden (find the spelling error) https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/17/statement-from-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-3/
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    39 minutos