Episódios

  • IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth

    IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth
    Aug 26 2026
    In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow David on LinkedIn and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market?28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work42:33 - Why investors have never had it betterCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    47 minutos
  • SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski
    Aug 22 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks14:51 - August trend following performance16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields?31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset?47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers56:49 - The “podification” of trend following59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative tradingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 14 minutos
  • ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle

    ALO38: Why the Old Rules of Diversification Are Changing ft. Mike Pyle
    Aug 19 2026
    Alan Dunne is joined by Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group, to explore how a supply-driven world is reshaping markets and portfolio construction. They discuss the transition from the demand-constrained 2010s to an era defined by scarcity, fiscal activism, geopolitical shocks and the immense capital demands of AI. Pyle explains why bonds may no longer provide the diversification they once did, why hedge funds and market-neutral strategies are becoming increasingly important, and how portable alpha can separate beta from return generation. They also examine AI productivity, equity valuations and what should replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Mike on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 Mike Pyle’s journey from policymaking to investing04:30 The shift from a demand-driven to a supply-driven world07:29 Why the stock-bond relationship has changed12:09 The return of fiscal activism15:52 AI, scarcity and the growing demands on capital19:57 When will AI productivity begin to transform the economy?22:53 AI, inflation and the future of interest rates25:23 AI valuations, earnings and whether markets are in a bubble29:48 Building portfolios for the new macro regime33:35 Private markets, income and hedge fund diversification37:06 Why multi-strategy investing matters42:19 Leverage, factor exposure and lessons from the quant crisis46:08 Why the environment for hedge funds has improved48:39 Portable alpha and separating alpha from beta52:51 What comes after the traditional 60/40 portfolio56:47 How AI could transform investment management01:00:19 Mike Pyle’s advice for the next generation of investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 4 minutos
  • SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

    SI413: Why Trend Following Is More Than Crisis Alpha ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel
    Aug 15 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel to examine a remarkable period for systematic investing. They discuss how CTAs have navigated volatile moves across equities, commodities, currencies and rates while preserving strong gains, and why diversification has been central to that resilience. The conversation explores leverage, the renewed interest in managed accounts and portable alpha, alongside the growing distinction between trend and non-trend strategies. They also challenge the traditional framing of CTAs as crisis alpha, debate whether greater complexity actually improves returns, and examine the difficulties investors face when selecting managers and benchmarking an industry where yesterday’s winners may not remain tomorrow’s leaders.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Follow Tom on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and eclipse mania02:57 - Volatility, valuations and a changing market environment06:22 - Trend Barometer falls as opportunities narrow08:21 - How CTAs have navigated 202610:10 - An extraordinary year for systematic investing14:07 - Yen intervention and CTA resilience17:11 - Trend versus non-trend performance22:20 - August performance and the systematic landscape24:48 - Active commodity strategies versus traditional CTAs29:39 - Situational Awareness and the risks of leverage32:14 - Managed accounts, capital efficiency and risk control37:49 - Are systematic strategies becoming over-engineered?42:45 - The growing divide between trend and non-trend CTAs50:34 - Reframing trend following as all-weather alpha55:07 - Why the crisis alpha narrative can be misleading01:04:06 - The hidden challenges of CTA benchmarks01:12:12 - Manager selection and diversification across CTAs01:14:15 - Does non-trend really improve a CTA portfolio?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 22 minutos
  • ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau

    ALO37: Investing in the New World Order ft. Charles-Henry Monchau
    Aug 12 2026
    Charles-Henry Monchau joins Alan Dunne to discuss how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and structural economic shifts are reshaping global investing. They explore the AI supercycle, the changing balance between the US, China and Europe, sovereign debt, inflation, commodities and the future of asset allocation. Charles explains why investors should focus on long-term structural themes rather than short-term market noise and why the biggest opportunities may lie beyond the current AI infrastructure boom. The conversation also examines Europe’s competitiveness, China’s innovation strategy and the risks that could define the next phase of the investment cycle.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Charles on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Charles-Henry Monchau's path into investing03:49 - The new geopolitical order and global investing09:02 - Is artificial intelligence inflationary or deflationary?12:49 - The AI CapEx supercycle and future market winners18:41 - Are markets in an earnings bubble?21:27 - Capital spending, debt issuance and market liquidity25:22 - Sovereign debt and the future of asset allocation28:13 - Gold, fiscal dominance and reserve currencies32:27 - Kevin Warsh and the future of the Federal Reserve40:36 - China's innovation strategy and investment outlook43:49 - Building portfolios around AI winners and losers48:12 - Commodities, biotech and defense opportunities51:10 - Can Europe remain competitive?57:23 - The biggest risks facing investors today58:45 - Career advice for the next generation of investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 2 minutos
  • SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore

    SI412: Portable Alpha: Asking the Questions That Matter ft. Harry Moore
    Aug 8 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Harry Moore explore the latest developments in trend following, the AI investment boom and why diversification matters most when markets come under pressure. They discuss CTA performance, market dispersion, portable alpha, cash efficient portfolio construction and the role of trend following during major market drawdowns. The conversation also examines how artificial intelligence is transforming quantitative research, the practical challenges of portfolio implementation and new research linking classic Turtle Trading principles to modern portfolio theory.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Harry on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Market headlines, AI investing and recent macro developments09:32 - Trend following performance and July market review18:42 - How market selection drives CTA performance22:21 - The AI trade and why trend following provides portfolio resilience30:36 - How AI is transforming quantitative research36:07 - Portable alpha and why cash efficiency matters46:14 - Cash buffers, margin management and implementation risks56:33 - Correlation, diversification and building resilient portfolios58:15 - The mathematics behind the Turtle Trading rules01:08:54 - Why risk management has always been the core of trend following01:11:28 - Understanding leverage in portable alpha strategies01:18:32 - Listener questions and final thoughtsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 20 minutos
  • ALO36: The Endowment Playbook for Long-Term Investing ft. Paul Chai

    ALO36: The Endowment Playbook for Long-Term Investing ft. Paul Chai
    Aug 5 2026
    Paul Chai joins Alan Dunne to discuss what it takes to manage a perpetual investment portfolio designed to support future generations. As CIO of the Kansas State University Foundation, Paul explains how disciplined asset allocation, thoughtful manager selection and strong governance create resilient long-term results. The conversation explores endowment investing, private markets, hedge funds, portfolio construction and the importance of building a decision-making culture where diverse perspectives are encouraged. It is a wide-ranging discussion about investing with humility, managing uncertainty and creating an investment process that can endure through changing market environments.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Paul on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why better investment decisions start with diverse thinking01:02 - Paul Chai's journey from engineering to institutional investing04:50 - Managing a perpetual endowment for future generations08:48 - Building resilient strategic asset allocations11:54 - The advantages of managing a $1.2 billion endowment15:29 - Portfolio construction beyond the traditional 60/40 model20:57 - Strategic asset allocation versus total portfolio investing24:05 - Lessons from the Yale Endowment model26:26 - Finding unconventional investment opportunities31:21 - Building a diversifying hedge fund portfolio38:02 - Why CTA strategies no longer fit the portfolio43:01 - Manager selection, due diligence and finding alpha45:39 - The importance of grit when selecting investment managers51:25 - Building better investment teams and decision-making cultures57:20 - Advice for the next generation of long-term investorsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 1 minuto
  • SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan

    SI411: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong ft. David Dredge & Richard Brennan
    Aug 1 2026
    The future isn’t hidden. It hasn’t been written yet. That idea anchors this foundational conversation between Dave Dredge, Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, on what risk really means in markets. They challenge the mathematics behind modern portfolio construction, exposing how calm conditions can conceal leverage, how diversification can fail when it matters most, and why familiar measures such as volatility and Sharpe ratios often miss the forces that lead to permanent loss. From path dependency and complex adaptive systems to trend following, convexity and the geometry of wealth, this episode offers a different framework for investing under uncertainty. For anyone responsible for preserving and compounding capital, this is essential listening. Because the strongest portfolio is not the one built around being right, but the one prepared to survive being wrong.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Follow David on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Market review, July performance and introducing Dave Dredge08:01 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems18:49 - Price insensitive investors and the hidden drivers of markets26:03 - How market participants create fat tails and volatility31:38 - Where major market moves really come from39:05 - Ergodicity and why sequence matters in investing46:37 - The forest fire analogy for understanding financial risk51:15 - Why calm markets often hide the greatest dangers56:13 - Leverage, convexity and the source of market fragility01:00:53 - Why optimal portfolio construction can increase risk01:05:38 - Football, convexity and building resilient portfolios01:13:03 - Why the Sharpe ratio fails to measure real risk01:21:40 - Lessons for trend followers navigating complex marketsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    2 horas