What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston

02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need

04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data

05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend

08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity

10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change

12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds

15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year

20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe

24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently

26:20

China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow George on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and disclaimer

02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus

06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly

11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base

16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing

22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects

25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs

27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt

29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences

33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China...

What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation’s return, and question why QIS indices so often fade in practice. Beneath it all lies a quiet question: what truly drives the modern market?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:23 – Opening and agenda for the discussion

00:01:05 – Math education in the UK and XTX’s push to fund young talent

00:03:39 – Market performance recap for early November

00:04:49 – Reflections on volatility and fixed income trading conditions

00:05:13 – Introduction to the “Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”

00:05:53 – Supply, demand, and elasticity explained in market terms

00:10:30 – Instrumental variables and how economists measure elasticity

00:14:51 – The debate: if markets clear, how can flows move prices?

00:15:44 – Why equities are more inelastic than bonds

00:21:04 – Questioning the 5x effect and how...

Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction

03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles

08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes

13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets

20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system

27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation

34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk

41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”

49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle...

Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instinct, pattern, and total psychological clarity. No screens. No signals. Just presence. Dave tried to trade that way himself - made 300%, unraveled, and walked away. What emerges is less a portrait of Seykota than a meditation on the limits of imitation, the pressure of performance, and the discipline it takes to trade like yourself - especially after witnessing someone who doesn’t.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Introduction to part 2

02:57 - Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota

06:46 - The best trader the world has ever seen

17:13 - The optimal bed size

21:24 - What Druz learned from working with Seykota

24:42 - Key lessons for managing drawdowns

26:54 - How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota

31:58 - Living with Ed Seykota

34:16 - Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie mania

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following...

As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and what resilience in markets might really be masking. This is not just about strategy. It’s about how products scale, and how ideas hold.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - Moritz opens the show and introduces Nick

01:16 - Nick’s quick life update and setting the tone

02:45 - Market resilience vs. fragility in 2025

04:18 - Performance rundown: CTAs, trend, equities, bonds

06:10 - October reversals: metals and livestock giveback

07:32 - What’s working: equities, gold, copper; sugar shorts

08:58 - Trend speed, April V-shape, and dispersion

10:40 - Position exits, re-entries, and neutral zones

11:55 - How QIS differs and why it’s opaque from the outside

14:40 - How big is QIS? Asset class split and caveats

18:05 - Who uses QIS: from asset owners to hedge

Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now. In this unique conversation with Moritz Seibert, Dave - Ed Seykota’s first apprentice - shares how he built his approach, why he never identified as a trend follower, and what matters when your edge comes from standing opposite commercial hedgers. He explains why portfolio construction outranks entries, why volatility is the price of real risk, and why staying small was a choice, not a limitation. From medicine to markets, from apprenticeship to independence, this isn’t just how he traded - it’s why he stayed silent, and why he’s speaking now.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Read more about David.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:11 - Introduction to Dave Druz

13:50 - Druz' time in the Commodities Corporation

19:14 - How did Druz discover trend following?

23:57 - The core philosophy behind Druz' trend following strategy

28:08 - Who wins and loses in the markets?

37:37 - Determining hedging flows in commodity markets

41:03 - Managing money in trend following

43:40 - How does Druz size a position and get out of it?

45:16 - Coping with a high level of volatility

50:23 - Mitigate drawdown or take the...

Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series

00:00:23 – Niels’ intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich

00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk

00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules

00:07:50 – AI’s edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following

00:10:35 – Gold’s violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens

00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust

00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today’s decoupling and trends

00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade

00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions

00:35:48 – Volatility ≠...