Episódios

  • IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth

    IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth
    Sep 16 2026
    Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Robin on X and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market?32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problemCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 4 minutos
  • SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver

    SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver
    Sep 12 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF?14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize?31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together?36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification mattersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 9 minutos
  • GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein

    GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein
    Sep 9 2026
    Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Matt on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity?15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data?18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy?21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change nextCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 2 minutos
  • SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git

    SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git
    Sep 5 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated?43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 202001:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 14 minutos
  • GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth

    GM106: What Happens When the Debt Finally Matters ft. Marvin Barth
    Sep 2 2026
    Marvin Barth joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan for a wide-ranging debate about the Fed, inflation and the growing pressures on the US economy. Barth argues that central bankers have become too confident in models that cannot fully capture reality, while the conversation quickly turns to Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent and the power of signaling in financial markets. From there, Cem and Marvin "clash" over austerity, debt monetization, populism and inequality before examining why inflation expectations may matter more than individual shocks. We round this super energetic conversation by exploring the coming historic El Niño, commodity disruptions and what Warsh’s recent dovish turn could reveal about the future of Fed policy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Marvin on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why inflation expectations matter more than anything else01:05 - Introducing Marvin Barth04:46 - From salmon fishing to the Federal Reserve09:09 - Has central banking become too confident in its own models?16:25 - Bessent, Warsh and what Treasury buybacks really mean18:15 - Why signaling may matter more than the actual policy25:56 - Can the US actually solve its debt problem through austerity?31:25 - Debt, inflation, China and the pressures building in the system35:31 - Is there another way out for the US economy?40:29 - The big debate over populism and inequality47:39 - Free markets, fairness and who actually benefits57:59 - Why inflation ultimately comes down to expectations59:46 - Austerity versus monetizing the debt01:02:06 - How El Niño could reshape inflation and emerging markets01:11:26 - Has Kevin Warsh already changed course at the Fed?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 24 minutos
  • SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne

    SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne
    Aug 29 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne examine how a changing macro regime is reshaping markets and the role of trend following. They discuss unusual U.S. intervention in the yen, mounting sensitivity around Treasury yields, and questions surrounding Kevin Warsh’s communication and the Fed’s credibility. Alan identifies three fractures defining the new regime: persistent inflation, growing debt sustainability concerns, and the erosion of institutional norms. They also explore why trend following has performed differently this decade, particularly during periods of bond market stress, before comparing AQR and GMO’s strikingly different long-term return assumptions and what they imply for portfolio construction.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s been on Alan’s radar01:55 - Why U.S. intervention in the yen matters07:04 - Zuckerberg, Meta and the $16.68 billion question08:31 - August trend following performance and market intervention12:16 - Why CTA performance is increasingly dispersed16:08 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed balance sheet and Treasury supply18:56 - Has short-term trend following structurally degraded?22:17 - Macro narratives versus systematic positioning24:37 - Fed communication, credibility and the Warsh reaction function30:16 - Bessent, Warsh, Druckenmiller and the battle over bond yields34:23 - The three fractures reshaping the macro regime41:42 - How trend following has changed in the new regime49:54 - Commodities, deglobalization and diversification52:29 - AQR versus GMO: radically different forecasts for future returns01:02:08 - Debt sustainability and what investors should watch nextCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 7 minutos
  • IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth

    IL52: Why Staying Calm Is the Ultimate Investing Edge ft. David Booth
    Aug 26 2026
    In today’s episode we talk with a pioneer of modern asset management, Dimensional Fund Advisors founder David Booth. David founded Dimensional in 1981 and it has since grown to over $1 trillion in assets, making it one of the most successful quantitative investment firms in history. We talk with him about his new book, Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life. We discuss his early career working on both the world’s first index fund and the first active quant strategy developed by finance legends Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. David explains why successful investing involves embracing uncertainty - because it is that uncertainty that generates long-run returns. He explains why we should abandon predicting markets and focus instead on planning. We end by discussing why he is both a realist and optimist and how each of us can cultivate the same mindset.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow David on LinkedIn and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why uncertainty creates opportunity for long term investors01:01 - David Booth's journey from Kansas to pioneering modern investing06:13 - The birth of index investing and the origins of Dimensional10:21 - Why investing is about managing uncertainty not predicting markets13:00 - Why everyone should own part of the market14:00 - Human ingenuity, market resilience and the lessons of history18:02 - Updating research without abandoning first principles23:38 - Has the rise of index investing changed the market?28:45 - Diversification beyond the Magnificent Seven29:52 - Tuning out market noise and focusing on what matters32:23 - Why life events should shape your portfolio more than headlines34:53 - Plan don't predict and learning to stay calm39:02 - Optimism, realism and why markets continue to work42:33 - Why investors have never had it betterCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    47 minutos
  • SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski
    Aug 22 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks14:51 - August trend following performance16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields?31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage41:40 - Can Treasuries still be considered a safe asset?47:17 - Three different approaches to trend following52:25 - How investors should diversify across trend managers56:49 - The “podification” of trend following59:29 - Why short-term trend following struggles01:03:19 - Victor Niederhoffer and the foundations of quantitative tradingCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 14 minutos