Episódios

  • SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan

    SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan
    Oct 2 2026
    Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar03:34 - A strong year for trend following05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher?09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market?19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainability of AI-driven earnings growth25:27 - Market concentration and the growing fragility of the system33:54 - Government intervention and the return of the V-shaped market37:19 - Cem’s case for a coming Treasury market shock42:50 - Why the US midterm elections could matter for markets46:43 - What the options market is pricing for the months ahead48:27 - Bond volatility and where yields could go next50:41 - Could the US eventually create a sovereign wealth fund?54:34 - Inflation, equities and the importance of real returns01:00:13 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may face a different futureCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 4 minutos
  • TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton

    TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton
    Sep 30 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s money. Pat shares lessons from his encounters with Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry before explaining why taking outside capital fundamentally changes a manager’s responsibility. They discuss the real sources of trend following returns, why managers can damage their edge by listening too closely to clients, and whether replication and multi-strategy funds have changed the landscape. They also explore capacity, changing market regimes and why investor behavior may ultimately matter more than finding the perfect strategy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Find out more about DUNN Capital.Follow Patrick on LinkedIn.Episode Timestamps:Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 7 minutos
  • SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas

    SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas
    Sep 26 2026
    Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s caught Nick’s attention01:31 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 50004:12 - Why bond yields are rising around the world08:28 - A strong month and year for trend following12:08 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike15:12 - Can volatility make trend following more adaptive?20:43 - What the latest research actually tells us23:21 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction25:50 - Can investors identify trend regimes in advance?27:04 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help29:30 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers32:01 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation44:14 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio?50:03 - Why backtesting AI investment models is so difficult55:05 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following?58:33 - Using AI to manage competing investment objectives01:01:22 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 6 minutos
  • OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock

    OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock
    Sep 23 2026
    Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and why understanding supply and demand can create opportunities in markets where prices can change dramatically within minutes. They explore the psychology behind taking risk, why a handful of exceptional days can define an entire year, and the lessons Cory learned from his biggest wins and losses. They also discuss GBE’s approach to developing young traders and how AI is accelerating the process of turning raw talent into real trading ability.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Cory on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Knowing when to walk away from a losing trade01:03 - Introducing Cory Paddock and GBE Energy04:35 - How US power markets actually work08:21 - PJM and the changing US electricity mix11:07 - Why North America effectively has three separate power grids14:42 - What a power trader actually trades19:40 - Why electricity trading never really stops21:48 - Finding an edge through supply, demand and weather28:13 - Why power markets remain so attractive to traders30:37 - What “10 times crypto” volatility looks like33:50 - The four stages of becoming a power trader36:07 - Conviction, sizing and getting comfortable with being uncomfortable38:15 - The trades that helped create GBE Energy40:42 - What a painful losing trade taught Cory43:16 - Why GBE changed the way it recruits traders48:57 - What Cory looks for in aspiring traders50:50 - How quickly can someone learn to trade power?53:31 - AI, data centers and the future of electricity marketsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora
  • SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan

    SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan
    Sep 19 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why markets may be better understood as evolving systems shaped by the participants within them rather than machines moving toward equilibrium. They discuss reflexivity, increasing returns and how trends can begin to reinforce themselves, before asking what this means for systematic investors. Along the way, Richard explains why backtests are evidence rather than promises, why taking profits too early can be costly, and why responding to markets may ultimately matter more than predicting them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Why trend following’s edge may have moved rather than disappeared03:26 - What three years of research revealed about trend following06:50 - Why big trends and outliers are structural features of markets11:35 - Trend following performance and what’s moving markets16:49 - Should trend followers ever take profits early?21:03 - What the Santa Fe Institute can teach us about markets25:51 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems29:46 - Reflexivity and how investors help create market outcomes35:18 - Why equilibrium may be the wrong way to think about markets40:22 - Mean reversion, positive feedback and why trends persist42:55 - Increasing returns and the lessons of VHS versus Betamax50:01 - How market movements begin to feed on themselves54:11 - Why trend following emerged inside an artificial stock market58:20 - How every system eventually gets gamed01:01:47 - What backtests can and cannot tell us about the future01:08:31 - How trend followers prepare for a future they cannot predictCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 16 minutos
  • IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth

    IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth
    Sep 16 2026
    Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Robin on X and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market?32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problemCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 4 minutos
  • SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver

    SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver
    Sep 12 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF?14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize?31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together?36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification mattersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 9 minutos
  • GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein

    GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein
    Sep 9 2026
    Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Matt on X.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity?15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data?18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy?21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change nextCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 2 minutos