Episódios

  • SI421: Taking CTAs Mainstream ft. Andrew Beer

    SI421: Taking CTAs Mainstream ft. Andrew Beer
    Oct 10 2026
    How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Andrew on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why portfolios may need a more tactical approach01:04 - AI, entrepreneurship and the changing world of work08:07 - Complex systems and why the future is so difficult to predict09:47 - Trend following performance and what is driving returns13:59 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio is being questioned16:20 - The problem with long-term asset allocation assumptions22:41 - Diversification, market timing and the historical advantage of bonds27:01 - What 27 years of managed futures data tells us31:51 - Crisis alpha across the dot-com crash, GFC and 202236:08 - Correlation, alpha and the diversification case for CTAs38:12 - Drawdowns and why tactical strategies can preserve capital44:55 - Sharpe ratios and the problem of lumpy returns50:39 - Why choosing the right managed futures manager is so difficult54:57 - How managed futures can finally grow the pie01:05:04 - Why the industry needs to stop getting lost in the technical details01:08:14 - The danger of betting everything on one manager01:13:02 - Why timing managed futures can make a good strategy look badCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 18 minutos
  • IL54: Why Smart Investors Keep Making Crazy Decisions ft. Alex Edmans

    IL54: Why Smart Investors Keep Making Crazy Decisions ft. Alex Edmans
    Oct 7 2026
    In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through practical ways this can be implemented.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Alex on LinkedIn and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Alex Edmans’ new book The Madness of Markets02:46 - How football results can move stock markets07:16 - What Spotify playlists can tell us about investor sentiment11:28 - Why individual investors may have an advantage over professionals16:26 - Specialists, generalists and finding your investing edge21:59 - When benchmarks make active managers too conservative26:18 - Risk, alpha and the equity premium puzzle30:07 - Why momentum works and when it crashes35:35 - Where individual investors can exploit overlooked opportunities37:48 - How round numbers influence buying and selling decisions39:54 - The disposition effect and why investors hold onto losers44:12 - Three practical ways to make better investment decisions47:20 - Why writing down your investment thesis matters52:08 - Outsourcing the ugly decisions55:30 - AI, bubbles and the big market delusion58:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find the bookCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 1 minuto
  • SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan

    SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan
    Oct 2 2026
    Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar03:34 - A strong year for trend following05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher?09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market?19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainability of AI-driven earnings growth25:27 - Market concentration and the growing fragility of the system33:54 - Government intervention and the return of the V-shaped market37:19 - Cem’s case for a coming Treasury market shock42:50 - Why the US midterm elections could matter for markets46:43 - What the options market is pricing for the months ahead48:27 - Bond volatility and where yields could go next50:41 - Could the US eventually create a sovereign wealth fund?54:34 - Inflation, equities and the importance of real returns01:00:13 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may face a different futureCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 4 minutos
  • TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton

    TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton
    Sep 30 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s money. Pat shares lessons from his encounters with Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry before explaining why taking outside capital fundamentally changes a manager’s responsibility. They discuss the real sources of trend following returns, why managers can damage their edge by listening too closely to clients, and whether replication and multi-strategy funds have changed the landscape. They also explore capacity, changing market regimes and why investor behavior may ultimately matter more than finding the perfect strategy.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Find out more about DUNN Capital.Follow Patrick on LinkedIn.Episode Timestamps:Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 7 minutos
  • SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas

    SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas
    Sep 26 2026
    Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Nick on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s caught Nick’s attention01:31 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 50004:12 - Why bond yields are rising around the world08:28 - A strong month and year for trend following12:08 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike15:12 - Can volatility make trend following more adaptive?20:43 - What the latest research actually tells us23:21 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction25:50 - Can investors identify trend regimes in advance?27:04 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help29:30 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers32:01 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation44:14 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio?50:03 - Why backtesting AI investment models is so difficult55:05 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following?58:33 - Using AI to manage competing investment objectives01:01:22 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents?Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 6 minutos
  • OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock

    OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock
    Sep 23 2026
    Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and why understanding supply and demand can create opportunities in markets where prices can change dramatically within minutes. They explore the psychology behind taking risk, why a handful of exceptional days can define an entire year, and the lessons Cory learned from his biggest wins and losses. They also discuss GBE’s approach to developing young traders and how AI is accelerating the process of turning raw talent into real trading ability.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Cory on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Knowing when to walk away from a losing trade01:03 - Introducing Cory Paddock and GBE Energy04:35 - How US power markets actually work08:21 - PJM and the changing US electricity mix11:07 - Why North America effectively has three separate power grids14:42 - What a power trader actually trades19:40 - Why electricity trading never really stops21:48 - Finding an edge through supply, demand and weather28:13 - Why power markets remain so attractive to traders30:37 - What “10 times crypto” volatility looks like33:50 - The four stages of becoming a power trader36:07 - Conviction, sizing and getting comfortable with being uncomfortable38:15 - The trades that helped create GBE Energy40:42 - What a painful losing trade taught Cory43:16 - Why GBE changed the way it recruits traders48:57 - What Cory looks for in aspiring traders50:50 - How quickly can someone learn to trade power?53:31 - AI, data centers and the future of electricity marketsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora
  • SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan

    SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan
    Sep 19 2026
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why markets may be better understood as evolving systems shaped by the participants within them rather than machines moving toward equilibrium. They discuss reflexivity, increasing returns and how trends can begin to reinforce themselves, before asking what this means for systematic investors. Along the way, Richard explains why backtests are evidence rather than promises, why taking profits too early can be costly, and why responding to markets may ultimately matter more than predicting them.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rich on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Why trend following’s edge may have moved rather than disappeared03:26 - What three years of research revealed about trend following06:50 - Why big trends and outliers are structural features of markets11:35 - Trend following performance and what’s moving markets16:49 - Should trend followers ever take profits early?21:03 - What the Santa Fe Institute can teach us about markets25:51 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems29:46 - Reflexivity and how investors help create market outcomes35:18 - Why equilibrium may be the wrong way to think about markets40:22 - Mean reversion, positive feedback and why trends persist42:55 - Increasing returns and the lessons of VHS versus Betamax50:01 - How market movements begin to feed on themselves54:11 - Why trend following emerged inside an artificial stock market58:20 - How every system eventually gets gamed01:01:47 - What backtests can and cannot tell us about the future01:08:31 - How trend followers prepare for a future they cannot predictCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 16 minutos
  • IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth

    IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth
    Sep 16 2026
    Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Robin on X and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market?32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problemCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
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    1 hora e 4 minutos