Episódios

  • Prediction Markets and Beyond

    Prediction Markets and Beyond
    Nov 22 2024
    with @atabarrok @skominers @smc90We've heard a lot about the premise and the promise of prediction markets for a long time, but they finally hit the main stage with the most recent election. So what worked (and didn't) this time? Are they really better than pollsters, is polling dead? So in this conversation, we tease apart the hype from the reality of prediction markets, from the recent election to market foundations... going more deeply into the how, why, and where these markets work. We also discuss the design challenges and opportunities (including implications for builders throughout). And we also cover other information aggregation mechanisms -- from peer prediction to others -- given that prediction markets are part of a broader category of information-elicitation and information-aggregation mechanisms. Where do domain experts, superforecasters, pollsters, and journalists come in (and out)? Where do (and don't) blockchain and crypto technologies come in -- and what specific features (decentralization, transparency, real-time, open source, etc.) matter most, and in what contexts? Finally, we discuss applications for prediction and decision markets -- things we could do right away to in the near-future to sci-fi -- touching on trends like futarchy, AI entering the market, DeSci, and more. Our special expert guests are Alex Taborrok, professor of economics at George Mason University and Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center; and Scott Duke Kominers, research partner at a16z crypto, and professor at Harvard Business School -- both in conversation with Sonal Chokshi. As a reminder: None of the following should be taken as business, investment, legal, or tax advice; please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information. RESOURCES(from links to research mentioned to more on the topics discussed)The Use of Knowledge in Society by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945)Everything is priced in by rsd99 (r/wallstreetbets, 2019)Idea Futures (aka prediction markets, information markets) by Robin Hanson (1996)Auctions: The Social Construction of Value by Charles SmithSocial value of public information by Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin (American Economic Review, December 2002)Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research by Anna Dreber, Thomas Pfeiffer, Johan Almenberg, Siri Isaksson, Brad Wilson, Yiling Chen, Brian Nosek, and Magnus Johannesson (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (November 2015)A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem by Dražen Prelec, Sebastian Seung, and John McCoy (Nature, January 2017)Targeting high ability entrepreneurs using community information: Mechanism design in the field by Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin Roth (American Economic Review, March 2022)Information aggregation mechanisms: concept, design, and implementation for a sales forecasting problem by Charles Plott and Kay-Yut Chen, Hewlett Packard Laboratories (March 2002)If I had a million [on deciding to dump the CEO or not] by Robin Hanson (2008)Futarchy: Vote values, but bet beliefs by Robin Hanson (2013)From prediction markets to info finance by Vitalik Buterin (November 2024)Composability is innovation by Linda Xie (June 2021)Composability is to software as compounding interest is to finance by Chris Dixon (October 2021)resources & research on DAOs, a16z crypto
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    1 hora e 48 minutos
  • Government... By Lottery?

    Government... By Lottery?
    Nov 2 2024

    with @baileyflan @ahall_research @rhhackett

    Today we’re dusting off an ancient practice that has become trendy once again: the old-but-new idea of “sortition,” or selecting representatives by lottery.

    Sortition was used in ancient Athenian democracy to elect public officials. It’s also been lately revived by tech companies like Meta and AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic to tackle some of their thorniest policymaking challenges.

    Our guests today are experts on sortition, including Bailey Flanigan, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard who is joining MIT as an assistant professor next year, and who has helped develop selection algorithms for sortition that are in use today. Also joining is Andrew Hall, Stanford University poli sci professor, advisor to Meta, and consultant to a16z crypto research.

    In this episode, we discuss why not to rely exclusively on expert authority, how the process of deliberation changes people’s minds, and how sortition can apply everywhere from the governance of countries to the governance of crypto projects, and more.

    Related resources:

    • Algorithms for fair, manipulation-robust, and transparent sortition with Bailey Flanigan

    As a reminder, none of the content should be taken as investment, business, legal, or tax advice. Please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information, including a link to a list of our investments.
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    57 minutos
  • AI Bots & Memecoins

    AI Bots & Memecoins
    Oct 26 2024

    with @pmarca @bhorowitz

    Today we’re running a special episode featuring a16z cofounders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz talking about AI bots and crypto. They discuss what happens when you mix postmodern theories and internet memes in an LLM. They also get into the sudden rise of a strange memecoin, the state of crypto regulation in the U.S., and more.

    This episode is a crossover from the Ben & Marc Show, which you can follow on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

    See the original episode:

    • How An AI Bot Became a Crypto Millionaire

    As always, none of the content should be taken as tax, business, legal or investment advice. See a16z.com/disclosures for more important information, including a link to a list of our investments.
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    38 minutos
  • State of Crypto 2024: Builder Energy, U.S. Election, Stablecoins, AI, More

    State of Crypto 2024: Builder Energy, U.S. Election, Stablecoins, AI, More
    Oct 18 2024

    with @DarenMatsuoka @eddylazzarin @rhhackett

    Welcome to web3 with a16z. Today we're taking you behind the scenes of our newly released, annual State of Crypto Report — a16z crypto's analysis of the latest data and trends that have defined the industry in 2024.

    This year's report features some brand new insights, from estimating the number of real crypto users globally, to understanding how much interest in crypto swing states may have ahead of the U.S. election. We also dig into infrastructure improvements to blockchains and key applications — including stablecoins, AI, and so-called DePIN. Be sure to visit a16zcrypto.com for all this and more including a new “Builder Energy” dashboard, which we’ll discuss on the show.

    Joining me to talk about the findings are lead data scientist and report author Daren Matsuoka and CTO Eddy Lazzarin. The first voice you'll hear after mine is Daren's, then Eddy's.

    a16z crypto resources:

    • State of Crypto Report 2024
    • Builder Energy dashboard
    • Estimating the number of real crypto users by Daren Matsuoka and Eddy Lazzarin

    As always, none of the content should be taken as tax, business, legal or investment advice. See a16z.com/disclosures for more important information, including a link to a list of our investments.
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    53 minutos
  • Bridges: Out of the Mess, Into the Meshnet (with LayerZero)

    Bridges: Out of the Mess, Into the Meshnet (with LayerZero)
    Sep 28 2024

    Welcome to web3 with a16z. Today we explore the messy secrets of blockchain bridges. These cross-chain connectors are the go-betweens in today's multichain world, but their short history has been a checkered one, with prominent projects succumbing to major hacks and other hijinks.

    So we've brought on one of the builders who knows this world best to help disentangle the messiness. That’s Bryan Pellegrino, cofounder and CEO of LayerZero Labs, maker of a popular blockchain interoperability protocol. In this episode, Bryan delivers a crash course on the evolution of bridges, including the ups and downs of various approaches. You'll also learn about the technology's inner workings, its applications, and how it fits in with ongoing efforts to scale blockchains.

    Joining is a16z crypto general partner Ali Yahya, who is also an expert in this area; plus me, your cohost, Robert Hackett. The first voice you'll hear after mine is Bryan's, then Ali's.

    As always, none of the content should be taken as tax, business, legal or investment advice. See a16z.com/disclosures for more important information, including a link to a list of our investments.
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    42 minutos
  • Games as Reality (with EVE Online)

    Games as Reality (with EVE Online)
    Sep 13 2024

    with @HilmarVeigar @eddylazzarin

    Our featured guest today is Hilmar Pétursson, the CEO of CCP Games, maker of EVE Online, a massive multiplayer online role playing game. In this episode, Pétursson shares his unique world view and game-making philosophy, as well as a deep dive into the technology and economic design of his sci-fi simulation. He also touches on how niche cults can break into mainstream culture, how slow databases can make for fun gameplay, and what to expect from EVE Frontier, a new blockchain-based overhaul of the space survival game that is now inviting people to apply as playtesters.

    The other voice you'll hear is that of Eddy Lazzarin, a16z crypto’s Chief Technology Officer and an avid gamer himself. This conversation originally took place earlier this year at a16z crypto's CSX startup accelerator program in London, videos of which are posted on the a16z crypto YouTube channel. Be sure to subscribe for more thought-provoking conversations and other insightful content.

    Related links:

    • "Crafting Virtual Worlds with Hilmar Pétursson, CEO of CCP Games" (a16z crypto Youtube)
    • Eve Online (eveonline.com)
    • Eve Frontier (evefrontier.com / projectawakening.io)
      • Playtest signup

    As a reminder, none of the content should be taken as investment, business, legal, or tax advice. Please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information, including a link to a list of our investments.
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    36 minutos
  • How Blockchain Tech Advances Benefit Other Industries

    How Blockchain Tech Advances Benefit Other Industries
    Sep 9 2024
    with Dan Boneh @tim_roughgarden @smc90In this special 50th episode of the web3 with a16z podcast, we discuss how work in the blockchains/ crypto space has led to advances in several important technologies — which can be (and are being) used by many other industries beyond crypto.Tim Roughgarden (a16z crypto Head of Research and professor at Columbia University) and Dan Boneh (a16z crypto Senior Research Advisor and professor at Stanford University) discuss these advances in conversation with Sonal Chokshi. Topics covered include automated market makers; credible auctions, collusion, and mechanism design not possible before; as well as zero knowledge; trusted execution environments (TEEs) and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE); and much more. We also discuss the recurring theme of how web3 provides a laboratory not only for experiments in governance, but for macroeconomics and more. The two also offer many useful explanations for anyone new to these technologies or seeking to understand why they matter in the big picture. It’s an innovation story we’ve seen over and over again, from the space program to other massive invention efforts: Technologies developed for one purpose often lead to benefits for humanity overall.Pieces mentioned in this episode and other resources:On some results and challenges in cryptoeconomics -- Tim Roughgarden, CESC 20228 reasons why blockchain mechanism design is hard -- Tim Roughgarden, a16zcrypto.com, 2024The computer in the sky (short version) -- Tim Roughgarden, 2024Zero knowledge canon -- with Justin Thaler's annotated bibliography, a16zcrypto,com 2022Using zero-knowledge proofs to fight disinformation -- Trisha Datta and Dan Boneh, IACR 2023VerITAS: Verifying Image Transformations at Scale -- Trisha Datta, Binyi Chen, Dan Boneh, 2024Achieving crypto privacy and regulatory compliance [+pdf of full paper]-- Joseph Burleson, Michele Korver, Dan Boneh, 2022Credible auctions: A trilemma -- Mohammad Akbarpour, Shengwu Li, Econometrica, 2020Auction design for web3 [episode 3 of this podcast] -- Scott Duke Kominers, Tim Roughgarden, Sonal Chokshi, 2022Building Cicada: Private on-chain voting using time-lock puzzles -- Michael Zhu, 2023Transaction fee mechanism design for the Ethereum blockchain: An economic analysis of EIP-1559 -- Tim Roughgarden, 2020Collusion-resilience in transaction fee mechanism design -- Hao Chung, Tim Roughgarden, Elaine Shi, 2024Transaction fee mechanism design in a Post-MEV world -- Maryam Bahrani, Pranav Garimidi,Tim Roughgarden, 2024Notes on Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS) -- Barnabé Monnot, 2022Complexity-approximation trade-offs in exchange mechanisms: AMMs vs. LOBs -- Jason Milionis, Ciamac Moallemi, Tim Roughgarden, 2023Trusted execution environments (TEEs) for blockchain applications -- Ari Juels, a16zcrypto.com, 2023 As a reminder, none of the following is investment, business, legal, or tax advice; please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information including a link to a list of our investments.
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    1 hora e 17 minutos
  • Governance Attack!?

    Governance Attack!?
    Aug 15 2024
    with @ahall_research @eddylazzarin @0xShuel @smc90In this episode, we cover both recent events + evergreen governance questions in political systems: Specifically, we breakdown the recent Compound “governance attack”... as well as the broader topic of DAO governance and voting in general. We also discuss how to avoid, prevent, and respond to such governance attacks -- highlighting key differences between on-chain/ token-based/ digital voting systems vs. physical-world political systems around the world. What happens when you have activity from actors that the majority doesn’t necessarily agree with? How do you distinguish between good-faith and bad-faith activity, especially on-chain? And other such tricky questions?? Our experts answering these questions (in conversation with Sonal Chokshi) include: - a16z crypto CTO Eddy Lazzarin;- head of network operations Ross Shuel;- and a16z crypto research collaborator, and Stanford professor of political science, Andrew Hall.The episode begins by quickly recapping the exact sequence of a recent Compound governance “attack” event a few weeks ago -- including discussing whether “governance attack” is the right label for it or not; how it’s different from other attacks; and the broader trend of online vs offline governance attacks in general -- before then going into specific solutions. The team also shares some behind-scenes tick tock on what happened, how people figure out motives behind actions on-chain (especially given the "indistinguishability problem"), and much more. Pieces mentioned in this episode and other resources:DAO governance attacks, and how to avoid them by Pranav Garimidi, Scott Duke Kominers, Tim RoughgardenThe DUNA: An Oasis For DAOs by Miles Jennings and David KerrGovernance FAQs by Andrew HallA new financial model for app tokens: How to generate cash flows by Mason Hall, Porter Smith, Miles Jennings, and Ross Shuelall things DAOs on a16zcrypto.comall things decentralization on a16zcrypto.comVoting, Security, and Governance in Blockchains (a16z Podcast, 2019) with Phil Daian and Ali Yahya (see also "On-Chain Vote Buying and the Rise of Dark DAOs" by Phil Daian, Tyler Kell, Ian Miers, and Ari Juels)PoS Blockchains - Designs, Consensus, Attacks (web3 with a16z Podcast, 2022) with Valeria Nikolaenko, Tim Roughgarden, Sonal ChokshiLightspeed Democracy: What web3 organizations can learn from the history of governance by Andrew Hall and Porter SmithGoverning democracy, the internet, and boardrooms (web3 with a16z Podcast, 2024) with Noah Feldman, Andrew Hall, Robert HackettAs a reminder: None of this should be taken as business, investment, legal, or tax advice; please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information -- including a link to a list of our investments.
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    1 hora e 2 minutos