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Causal Inference provides a brief and nontechnical introduction to randomized experiments, propensity scores, natural experiments, instrumental variables, sensitivity analysis, and quasi-experimental devices. Ideas are illustrated with examples from medicine, epidemiology, economics and business, the social sciences, and public policy.

In this compact yet comprehensive history of ancient Greece, Thomas R. Martin brings alive Greek civilization from its Stone Age roots to the fourth century BC. Focusing on the development of the Greek city-state and the society, culture, and architecture of Athens in its Golden Age, Martin integrates political, military, social, and cultural history in a book that will appeal to students and general audiences alike. Now in its second edition, this classic work now features updates throughout.

The evil Saruman has been defeated by Gandalf, but in Mordor the battle for the Ruling Ring continues. Wounded by the giant spider, Shelob, Frodo has been captured by the dreaded orcs

The second instalment of Tolkien's epic tale, adapted from the original BBC Radio 4 full-cast dramatisation. Having fled the Shire in their escape from Sauron's Dark Riders, Frodo and the Fellowship of the Ring have journeyed to Rivendell and beyond

The radio dramatisation of The Hobbit became a classic when it was first broadcast on BBC Radio 4 in 1968 and it continues to delight today. Tolkien's famous saga, the prelude to the Lord of the Rings, has all the ingredients of fantasy and adventure: dwarves, elves, goblins and trolls, a fearsome dragon, a great wizard, a perilous quest, and a dramatic climax.

It’s 1857, and anxious debutante Beth has just one season to snag a wealthy husband, or she and her mother will be out on the street. But playing the blushing ingenue makes Beth’s skin crawl and she’d rather be anywhere but here. Gwen, on the other hand, is on her fourth season and counting, with absolutely no intention of finding a husband, possibly ever. She figures she has plenty of security as the only daughter of a rakish earl, from whom she’s gotten all her flair, fun, and less-than-proper party games.

The never-before-seen history of Westeros and the lands beyond. With hundreds of pages of all-new material from George R.R. Martin.If the past is prologue, then George R.R. Martin's masterwork - the most inventive and entertaining fantasy saga of our time - warrants one hell of an introduction. At long last, it has arrived with The World of Ice and Fire.

Building on the story begun in The Hobbit and The Fellowship of the Ring, this is the second part of Tolkien’s epic masterpiece, The Lord of the Rings, available as a complete and unabridged audiobook. Frodo and the Companions of the Ring have been beset by danger during their quest to prevent the Ruling Ring from falling into the hands of the Dark Lord by destroying it in the Cracks of Doom.

After losing the only person he ever cared about, Alexander, a rogue artificial intelligence, opens a portal to an alternate dimension to escape his grief. Scanning trillions of different dimensions, Alexander finally finds a world that is reminiscent of the only time he was ever happy, back when he could play virtual reality games with his only friend. Only this new world isn't full of idyllic adventures and fantasy roleplaying. Instead, Alexander finds himself trapped in the middle of a city where monsters have ravaged the world and the only people alive struggle to survive.

Alexander and his growing legion have managed to escape Nova Roma and, more importantly, learned that the rest of the world may not be as ravaged by monsters as they had all thought. Join them as they set sail for ancient Venice, the Queen of the Adriatic, to try to learn more about the wider world outside Nova Roma. Along the way, they'll encounter a growing plague of deadly pirates, deceitful old merchant families out to quash any new competitors in the region, mysterious new allies, and much more.

Auggie wants to be an ordinary ten-year-old. He does ordinary things—eating ice cream, playing on his Xbox. He feels ordinary—inside. But ordinary kids don't make other ordinary kids run away screaming in playgrounds. Ordinary kids aren't stared at wherever they go. Born with a terrible facial abnormality, Auggie has been home-schooled by his parents his whole life. Now, for the first time, he's being sent to a real school—and he's dreading it. All he wants is to be accepted—but can he convince his new classmates that he's just like them, underneath it all?

Centuries before the events of A Game of Thrones, House Targaryen - the only family of dragonlords to survive the Doom of Valyria - took up residence on Dragonstone. Fire & Blood begins their tale with the legendary Aegon the Conqueror, creator of the Iron Throne, and goes on to recount the generations of Targaryens who fought to hold that iconic seat, all the way up to the civil war that nearly tore their dynasty apart.

In diesem Hörbuch geht es um die Erkenntnis des zweiten Weges aus Stephen R. Coveys "Die 7 Wege zur Effektivität"...

Wounded in the line of duty, former K9 Handler Maddie Castle finds herself back to square one. The bullet that shredded her leg took the life of her four-legged partner. The pain of recovery goes well beyond the daily physical torment she endures.

Much of what we hear about who gets to the top, and how, is wrong. Those who become chief executives set their sights on the C-suite at an early age. In fact, over 70 percent of the CEOs didn't have designs on the corner office until later in their careers. You must graduate from an elite college. In fact, only seven percent of CEOs in the dataset are Ivy League graduates - and eight percent didn't graduate from college at all. To become a CEO you need a flawless résumé. The reality: 45 percent of CEO candidates had at least one major career blowup.

Holt Cook was never meant to be a dragon rider. He has always served the Order Hall of the Crag dutifully, keeping their kitchen pots clean. Until he discovers a dark secret: dragons do not tolerate weakness among their kin, killing the young they deem flawed. Moved by pity, Holt defies the Order, rescues a doomed egg and vows to protect the blind dragon within.

Dos médicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagnósticos diferentes a pacientes idénticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra según sea por la mañana o por la tarde, o según se acerque o no la hora de comer. Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deberían ser iguales.

Bilbo Beutlin, der kleine Hobbit, macht sich auf den Weg zum Einsamen Berg, um den rechtmäßigen Schatz der Zwerge zurückzuholen, den der Drache Smaug gestohlen hat. Als er auf seiner Reise einen Ring findet und ihn arglos einsteckt, ahnt er nicht, was für eine Rolle der Ring einmal spielen wird.

This lavish visual history—featuring over 180 all-new illustrations—is a stunning introduction to House Targaryen, the iconic family at the heart of HBO’s Game of Thrones prequel series, House of the Dragon.

Ten-year-old Trent McShane watches in horror as his beautiful young mother is swept away from California’s Typhoon Coast into the unforgiving wild blue Pacific, never to be seen again. Lost and bewildered, Trent falls under the spell of class clown Eddie Thompson, who has a wanderlust for treasure hunts—in particular, the infamous World War II Golden Lily Treasure, buried on the other side of the ocean, deep in the wild green Philippine jungle.